International concern about Russia’s provocative stance toward Ukraine continues, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin denies plans for an attack — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cautioned on Jan. 28, 2022, against the idea that “there is war here.” Putin has built up more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, and the U.S. is… Continue reading What’s NATO, and why does Ukraine want to join?
Brad Pitt walks past one of the first homes built in New Orleans by his Make It Right Foundation in this 2008 photo. AP Photo/Alex Brandon Brad Pitt’s Make It Right Foundation built 109 eye-catching and affordable homes in New Orleans for a community where many people were displaced by damage wrought by Hurricane Katrina… Continue reading How Brad Pitt’s green housing dream for Hurricane Katrina survivors turned into a nightmare
Have the benefits of medicine been overhyped in the West? Kilito Chan/Moment via Getty Images Mindfulness is seemingly everywhere these days. A Google search I conducted in January 2022 for the term “mindfulness” resulted in almost 3 billion hits. The practice is now routinely offered in workplaces, schools, psychologists’ offices and hospitals all across the… Continue reading There is much more to mindfulness than the popular media hype
A Trump supporter climbs scaffolding in an effort to breach the U.S. Capitol. Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images Nihilism was notably cited during U.S. Senate deliberations after rioting Trump supporters had been cleared from the Capitol. “Don’t let nihilists become your drug dealers,” exhorted Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse. “There are some who want to burn… Continue reading Dostoevsky warned of the strain of nihilism that infects Donald Trump and his movement
Haitian President Jean-Pierre Boyer receiving Charles X’s decree recognizing Haitian independence on July 11, 1825. Bibliotheque Nationale de France Much of the reparations debate has revolved around whether the United States and the United Kingdom should finally compensate some of their citizens for the economic and social costs of slavery that still linger today. But… Continue reading When France extorted Haiti – the greatest heist in history
Grindr allows for anonymity in a way that other dating apps do not. Martin Bureau/AFP via Getty Images On gay dating apps like Grindr, many users have profiles that contain phrases like “I don’t date Black men,” or that claim they are “not attracted to Latinos.” Other times they’ll list races acceptable to them: “White/Asian/Latino… Continue reading How gay men justify their racism on Grindr
With snow comes shoveling, and with shoveling can come heart attacks. Trudy Wilkerson/Shutterstock If exercise is good for you, why do we worry that shoveling snow will raise the risk of a heart attack? Snow shoveling can be vigorous exercise Snow shoveling is a unique form of exertion. It can be vigorous and challenging to… Continue reading Why does shoveling snow increase risk of heart attack?
Some boomers are on multiple medications. Combinations of those drugs could have serious side effects. Getty Images / Sporrer/Rupp Baby boomers – that’s anyone born in the U.S. between 1946 and 1964 – are 20% of the population, more than 70 million Americans. Decades ago, many in that generation experimented with drugs that were both… Continue reading Boomers have a drug problem, but not the kind you might think
Climate change is raising flood risks in neighborhoods across the U.S. much faster than many people realize. Over the next three decades, the cost of flood damage is on pace to rise 26% due to climate change alone, an analysis of our new flood risk maps shows.
That’s only part of the risk. Despite recent devastating floods, people are still building in high-risk areas. With population growth factored in, we found the increase in U.S. flood losses will be four times higher than the climate-only effect.
In the new analysis, published Jan. 31, 2022, we estimated where flood risk is rising fastest and who is in harm’s way. The results show the high costs of flooding and lay bare the inequities of who has to endure America’s crippling flood problem. They also show the importance of altering development patterns now.
As the atmosphere warms, it holds about 7% more moisture for every degree Celsius that the temperature rises, meaning more moisture is available to fall as rain, potentially raising the risk of inland flooding. A warmer climate also leads to rising sea levels and higher storm surges as land ice melts and warming ocean water expands.
Yet, translating that understanding into the detailed impact of future flooding has been beyond the grasp of existing flood mapping approaches.
A map of Houston shows flood risk changing over the next 30 years. Blue areas are today’s 100-year flood-risk zones. The red areas reflect the same zones in 2050.Wing et al., 2022
Previous efforts to link climate change to flood models offered only a broad view of the threat and didn’t zoom in close enough to provide reliable measures of local risk, although they could illustrate the general direction of change. Most local flood maps, such as those produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, have a different problem: They’re based on historical changes rather than incorporating the risks ahead, and the government isslow to update them.
Our maps account for flooding from rivers, rainfall and the oceans – both now and into the future – across the entire contiguous United States. They are produced at scales that show street-by-street impacts, and unlike FEMA maps, they cover floods of many different sizes, from nuisance flooding that may occur every few years to once-in-a-millennium disasters.
While hazard maps only show where floods might occur, our new risk analysis combines that with data on the U.S. building stock to understand the damage that occurs when floodwaters collide with homes and businesses. It’s the first validated analysis of climate-driven flood risk for the U.S.
The inequity of America’s flood problem
We estimated that the annual cost of flooding today is over $32 billion nationwide, with an outsized burden on communities in Appalachia, the Gulf Coast and the Northwest.
When we looked at demographics, we found that today’s flood risk is predominantly concentrated in white, impoverished communities. Many of these are in low-lying areas directly on the coasts or Appalachian valleys at risk from heavy rainfall.
But the increase in risk as rising oceans reach farther inland during storms and high tides over the next 30 years falls disproportionately on communities with large African American populations on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Urban and rural areas from Texas to Florida to Virginia contain predominantly Black communities projected to see at least a 20% increase in flood risk over the next 30 years.
Historically, poorer communities haven’t seen as much investment in flood adaptation or infrastructure, leaving them more exposed. The new data, reflecting the cost of damage, contradicts a common misconception that flood risk exacerbated by sea level rise is concentrated in whiter, wealthier areas.
Hurricane Florence’s storm surge and extreme rainfall flooded towns on North Carolina’s Neuse River many miles inland from the ocean in 2018.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Our findings raise policy questions about disaster recovery. Prior research has found that these groups recover less quickly than more privileged residents and that disasters can further exacerbate existing inequities. Current federal disaster aid disproportionately helps wealthier residents. Without financial safety nets, disasters can be tipping points into financial stress or deeper poverty.
Population growth is a major driver of flood risk
Another important contributor to flood risk is the growing population.
As urban areas expand, people are building in riskier locations, including expanding into existing floodplains – areas that were already at risk of flooding, even in a stable climate. That’s making adapting to the rising climate risks even more difficult.
A Kansas City flood map shows developments in the 100-year flood zone.Fathom
We integrated into our model predictions how and where the increasing numbers of people will live in order to assess their future flood risk. The result: Future development patterns have a four times greater impact on 2050 flood risk than climate change alone.
On borrowed time
If these results seem alarming, consider that these are conservative estimates. We used a middle-of-the-road trajectory for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, one in which global carbon emissions peak in the 2040s and then fall.
Importantly, much of this impact over the next three decades is already lockedinto the climate system. While cutting emissions now is crucial to slow the rate of sea level rise and reduce future flood risk, adaptation is required to protect against the losses we project to 2050.
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If future development was directed outside of the riskiest areas, and new construction met higher standards for flood mitigation, some of these projected losses could be avoided. In previous research, we found that for a third of currently undeveloped U.S. floodplains it is cheaper to buy the land at today’s prices and preserve it for recreation and wildlife than develop it and pay for the inevitable flood damages later.
The results stress how critical land use and building codes are when it comes to adapting to climate change and managing future losses from increasing climate extremes. Protecting lives and property will mean moving existing populations out of harm’s way and stopping new construction in flood-risk areas.
Oliver Wing is a Research Fellow at the University of Bristol and also the Chief Research Officer of Fathom, a flood risk analytics firm.
Carolyn Kousky is the Executive Director of the Wharton Risk Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
Jeremy Porter is Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences at CUNY and also the Chief Research Officer at the research and technology non-profit First Street Foundation.
Paul Bates is Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol and also a founding shareholder of Fathom.
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International concern about Russia’s provocative stance toward Ukraine continues, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin denies plans for an attack — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cautioned on Jan. 28, 2022, against the idea that “there is war here.”
Putin has built up more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, and the U.S. is ready to deploy thousands of troops. The U.S. has also asked the United Kingdom and other NATO allies to deploy hundreds of soldiers to Eastern Europe.
Putin says he will stand down if NATO prohibits Ukraine from joining its alliance – a demand that has been rejected.
Understanding NATO and its history with Ukraine offers insight into the weight of this ultimatum.
NATO is a military alliance established in 1949 by the United States, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and eight other European countries. Additional countries have since joined NATO — most recently North Macedonia in 2020. Thirty nations are now part of the organization.
NATO’s 4,200 staff members and member country embassies are headquartered on the outskirts of Brussels.
The alliance works with the United Nations, and the two are sometimes confused – including in my classroom, where I teach history of the Soviet Union and the Cold War.
But NATO does have some things in common with the U.N. Both are international organizations that participating countries financially support. Both are dominated by the political influence of Western powers, including the U.S.
But the organizations are not the same. NATO is designed to fight war, if necessary, with its military alliance. The U.N. works to avoid war through peacekeeping, political negotiations and other means.
NATO’s key, traditional principle is “collective defense.” This means an attack on one or more members is considered an attack on all members.
NATO has invoked the collective defense principle only once: immediately after the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, when it deployed European military planes to patrol U.S. skies.
But NATO has used other political and legal means to justify engagement in the Kosovo War in former Yugoslavia during the 1990s and in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in the 2000s. The U.S. interprets NATO’s military mandate broadly, for example, as the right to use force whenever its members’ interests are at stake.
NATO has long responded to Russian military threats and served as a bulwark to protect against potential Soviet aggression during the Cold War.
Countries could vote by consensus to respond with military force to protect members in the event of any eventual Russian attack on Ukraine. But this military force would not directly protect Ukraine under the collective defense principle, as is not yet a NATO member.
Why does Ukraine want to join NATO?
Ukraine has had a partnership with NATO since 1992. NATO established a Ukraine-NATO commission in 1997, providing a discussion forum for security concerns and as a way to further the NATO-Ukraine relationship – without a formal membership agreement.
Membership with NATO would significantly increase Ukraine’s international military backing, allowing for NATO military action within Ukraine and alongside members of its military. This guarantee of military might would act as a firm deterrent to Russian aggression.
NATO is clear about the limits of its support to nonmember countries. While it has supported nonmember countries like Afghanistan during humanitarian emergencies, NATO does not commit to deploying troops to a nonmember state.
Membership would draw Ukraine more firmly toward Europe, making it more likely that Ukraine could join the European Union — another policy goal for Ukraine. Membership would also help the country build a closer relationship with the U.S.
Joining the alliance would also pull Ukraine further away from Russia’s sphere of influence.
But regional tensions could be exacerbated if Ukraine becomes a NATO member, as Russia has said it would interpret the alliance’s expansion as a direct threat.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addresses the first session of the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Riga, Latvia. on Nov. 30, 2021.Gints Ivuskans/AFP via Getty Images
All NATO members must unanimously approve a new country, based on factors like a functioning democracy and “unresolved external territorial disputes,” so the Russian troops camped on Ukraine’s border pose a problem.
NATO membership is open to any European country that can “contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area.” Aspiring member countries follow a Membership Action Plan, an application process that involves countries detailing their security and political policies. It can take a country 20 years to complete the plan and gain admittance, as in the case of North Macedonia.
Former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma publicly announced Ukraine’s interest in NATO membership in May 2002.
Ukraine then applied for a Membership Action Plan in 2008. This process stalled in 2010 under former President Viktor Yanukovich, a Putin-backed politician who did not want to pursue a NATO relationship.
Ukraine has more recently re-energized its plans to join NATO, especially in the face of the building Russia-Ukraine conflict and Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
But Ukraine joining NATO now would, quite simply, be a liability. The threat of an imminent conflict between Ukraine and Russia would commit NATO to take military action against Russia.
Alastair Kocho-Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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string(20365) "Brad Pitt walks past one of the first homes built in New Orleans by his Make It Right Foundation in this 2008 photo.AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Brad Pitt’sMake It Right Foundation built 109 eye-catching and affordable homes in New Orleans for a community where many people were displaced by damage wrought by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Now this housing development is in disarray. The vast majority of the recently constructed homes are riddled with construction-related problems that have led to mold, termites, rotting wood, flooding and other woes.
As an urban geographer who researches on housing development, I’ve been following Make It Right’s travails since 2018, when residents tried to get the New Orleans City Council involved and have municipal authorities inspect the homes. The situation has only deteriorated since then, highlighting the perils that can accompany nonprofit housing development.
This Make It Right home was vacant and boarded up in 2021.Judith Keller, CC BY-SA
Supposedly sustainable housing
Located in New Orleans’ historically Black and low-income Lower Ninth Ward, this cluster of affordable homes built between 2008 and 2015 was unusual for several reasons. Notably, these residences were sold, rather than rented to their occupants.
The architects who created these homes also tried to make them green and sustainable following a “cradle-to-cradle” philosophy that centers around the use of safe and reusable materials, clean water and renewable energy. All the homes had solar panels and energy-efficient heating and cooling systems.
The nonprofit housing developer says its mission is to “improve the design and performance of affordable housing” and to “share best practices associated with the construction of such homes.”
Make It Right also sought to revitalize the Lower Ninth Ward and bring people together. For example, it built a community garden and held regular meetings for the new homeowners.
This Make It Right home’s front porch was crumbling and collapsing in 2021.Judith Keller, CC BY-SA
Although some of these structures are not yet a decade old, my data shows that only six remain in reasonably good shape. Most either have had partial repairs or have been completely renovated because of structural problems. Two were demolished because of severe mold problems.
This Make It Right home underwent major structural repairs in 2018.Judith Keller, CC BY-SA
Many of the houses lacked ordinary, essential features such as rain gutters, overhangs, waterproof painting or covered beams – all of which are necessary to withstand New Orleans’ subtropical climate and heavy rainfall.
Pitt’s lawyers argued that he could not be sued over the housing development’s failings, but a judge ruled in 2019 that the movie star would remain a defendant because of his role as Make It Right’s founder and chief fundraiser.
‘Completely in shambles’
I interviewed 11 residents, as well as seven urban planning experts who worked on the case. Additionally, I gathered data on the development and the homes by reviewing New Orleans property assessments and building permits. While staying in the Lower Ninth Ward myself, I personally took a census of the development and mapped its current state.
More than one resident told me they were initially very excited to be part of something bigger.
A Make It Right resident I’m calling Harry – I promised anonymity to all the residents I interviewed – had to move out of his home during major renovations that didn’t resolve all the issues he faces.
“They kind of got a second chance to make it wrong, not make it right again,” Harry told me. “They made it wrong twice.”
As of early 2022, six homes are vacant because of mold, rot, flooding and assorted structural issues. Hanna, a young first-time homeowner, walked away from her Make It Right residence, which was later demolished.
Only eight months after she moved in, Hanna recounted to me, her home “was completely in shambles.” Its flat roof could not hold up in the heavy rains of New Orleans, causing massive water intrusion and subsequent termite infestation and mold.
Hanna struggles with health problems caused by toxic mold. “I would like to say that there is always a silver lining, but with this situation, I really don’t see a silver lining because it really changed a lot of my plans that I had for myself in life,” she said.
Most of the residents I interviewed were dealing with a similar state of constant uncertainty.
They don’t know how much longer their home is going to hold up, whether the mold they were exposed to is affecting their health, and, worst, what would happen to their finances if they were to lose their home.
“There is just no turning this off,” Harry lamented. “Sometimes I think I’m sitting on a time bomb in this house.”
Others described always being “on edge,” the situation being “very stressful,” and a feeling of having been “taken advantage of on the biggest scale.”
They wonder who they can turn to for help at this point.
“Something that’s been an incredible disappointment is the lack, the retreat, of Make It Right from any form of responsibility,” William told me.
“We also have an issue with the city, because those who inspect (the home) and are supposed to keep it safe, did not,” said Claire, who tried to get New Orleans’ safety and permits department involved.
The Make It Right Foundation moved out of its offices on Magazine Street in New Orleans in December 2021.Judith Keller, CC BY-SA
My many efforts to reach out to Make It Right by mail, email and visits in person remain unsuccessful. When I went to its New Orleans office in December 2021, I encountered no staff. Instead, I witnessed a moving crew that had been hired by the organization to move its furniture and other property into storage.
The organization has apparently failed to file a 990 form, annual paperwork the Internal Revenue Service requires of all nonprofits, covering any year since 2018. Local media have reported that a bank is suing it. Its website has become defunct and the phone number it included in its 2018 IRS paperwork no longer works. Even the person who mows the vacant Make It Right properties has told reporters that the nonprofit owes him money. Make It Right, in turn, is suing several former executives and its chief architect for alleged mismanagement.
The Conversation U.S. also attempted to reach out to the Make It Right Foundation by phone and email and was unsuccessful.
This mirrors the residents’ experiences, who have not seen evidence of the organization’s engagement with their community for years. Many are starting to pay for repairs out of their own pockets rather than wait for the nonprofit builder to resolve issues caused by its shoddy construction.
“I did most of the work myself,” Mario told me. “The ceiling tiles on the porch were falling off, and the wood was rotting, so I just replaced it, slowly, you know, so we could afford it.”
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Despite their experiences, some residents said they still believe Make It Right’s founder had good intentions. “I don’t blame Brad Pitt,” said David, another resident. “He had a vision to build low-income houses and get people back in the Lower Ninth Ward.”
Judith Keller receives funding from the German Research Association (DFG).
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string(11170) "Have the benefits of medicine been overhyped in the West?Kilito Chan/Moment via Getty Images
Mindfulness is seemingly everywhere these days. A Google search I conducted in January 2022 for the term “mindfulness” resulted in almost 3 billion hits. The practice is now routinely offered in workplaces, schools, psychologists’ offices and hospitals all across the country.
Most of the public enthusiasm for mindfulness stems from the reputation it has for reducing stress. But scholars and researchers who work on mindfulness, and the Buddhist tradition itself, paint a more complex picture than does the popular media.
Medicalizing meditation
Mindfulness originated in the Buddhist practice of “anapana-sati,” a Sanskrit phrase that means “awareness of breath.” Buddhist historian Erik Braun has traced the origins of the contemporary popularity of meditation to colonial Burma – modern-day Myanmar – in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Meditation, which was practiced almost exclusively inside monasteries until then, was introduced to the general public in a simplified format that was easier to learn.
The gradual spread of meditation from that time to the present is a surprisingly complex story.
The process of translating the Buddhist practice of meditation across cultural divides transformed the practice in significant ways. Modern meditation often has different goals and priorities than traditional Buddhist meditation. It tends to focus on stress reduction, mental health or concrete benefits in daily life instead of spiritual development, liberation or enlightenment.
A pivotal moment in this transformation was the creation of the Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) protocol by Jon Kabat-Zinn, a professor of medicine at the University of Massachusetts Medical School, in 1979. The stress reduction program introduced a standardized way of teaching meditation to patients so that its health benefits could be more rigorously measured by scientists.
Research on this new kind of “medicalized” mindfulness began to gather steam in the past two decades. As of today there are over 21,000 research articles on mindfulness in the National Library of Medicine’s online database — two and a half times as many articles as have been published on yoga, tai chi and reiki combined.
Scientific evidence vs. mindfulness hype
Medical researchers themselves have had a far more measured opinion about the benefits of meditation than the popular press.
For example, a 2019 meta-analysis, which is a review of many individual scientific studies, pointed out that the evidence for the benefits of mindfulness and other meditation-based interventions has “significant limitations” and that the research has “methodological shortcomings.”
Based on their review of the scientific literature, the authors warned against falling prey to “mindfulness hype.” On the positive side, they found various forms of meditation to be more or less comparable to the conventional therapies currently used to treat depression, anxiety, chronic pain and substance use. On the other hand, they concluded that more evidence is needed before any strong claims can be made regarding treatment of conditions such as attention disorders, PTSD, dysregulated eating or serious mental illnesses.
More troubling, some researchers are even beginning to suggest that a certain percentage of patients may experience negative side effects from the practice of meditation, including increased anxiety, depression or, in extreme cases, even psychosis. While the causes of these side effects are not yet fully understood, it is evident that for some patients, therapeutic meditation is far from the panacea it is often made out to be.
Putting mindfulness back into context
As a historian of the relationship between Buddhism and medicine, I argue that mindfulness can be a beneficial practice for many people, but that we should understand the broader context in which it developed and has been practiced for centuries. Mindfulness is one small part of a diverse range of healing techniques and perspectives the Buddhist tradition has developed and maintained over many centuries.
In a recent book, I have traced the global history of the many ways that the religion has contributed to the development of medicine over the past 2,400 years or so. Buddhist tradition advocates countless contemplations, devotional practices, herbal remedies, dietary advice and ways of synchronizing the human body with the environment and the seasons, all of which are related to healing.
These ideas and practices are enormously influential around the world as well as in Buddhist communities in the U.S. Such interventions have been particularly visible during the COVID-19 pandemic – for example, through the medical charity of major international Buddhist organizations as well as through health advice given by high-profile monastics such as the Dalai Lama.
Buddhism has always had a lot to say about health. But perhaps the most significant of its many contributions is its teaching that our physical and mental well-being are intricately intertwined – not only with each other, but also with the health and vitality of all living beings.
Medicalized meditation is now a self-help commodity that generates over US$1 billion per year, leading some critics to label it “McMindfulness.” But placing mindfulness back into a Buddhist ethical context shows that it is not enough to simply meditate to reduce our own stress or to more effectively navigate the challenges of the modern world.
As I argue in my most recent book, Buddhist ethics asks us to look up from our meditation cushions and to look out beyond our individual selves. It asks us to appreciate how everything is interconnected and how our actions and choices influence our lives, our society and the environment. The emphasis, even while healing ourselves, is always on becoming agents of compassion, healing and well-being for the whole.
[This Week in Religion, a global roundup each Thursday.Sign up.]
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Pierce Salguero, Penn State.
Pierce Salguero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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string(13496) "A liquefied natural gas tanker loading in Qatar. The Gulf nation is in talks to supply gas to Europe if Russia cuts supplies.AP Photo
The prospect of conflict between Russia and NATO countries over Ukraine has raised fears of an energy crisis in Europe. Russia provides nearly half of Europe’s natural gas, and some leaders worry that Moscow could tighten the flow if hostilities break out. To weaken Russia’s leverage, the Biden administration is working to secure additional gas shipments to Europe from other sources. Global energy policy expert Amy Myers Jaffe explains how much gas is available and what’s involved in rerouting it.
How dependent is Europe on natural gas, and who are its main suppliers?
Natural gas represents about one-fifth of all primary energy used across Europe. It accounts for about 20% of electric power generation and also is used for heating and industrial processes.
In recent months, European imports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from the U.S. and elsewhere reached record levels at around 400 million cubic meters per day. To put that in perspective, a single LNG cargo ship can hold roughly 125,000-175,000 cubic meters of natural gas – enough energy to warm 17 million British homes for one winter day.
What are the biggest constraints for exporters on sending more gas to Europe?
LNG is made by cooling natural gas to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 162 degrees Celsius), which reduces its volume by a factor of more than 600. Natural gas is piped to a port, processed in a liquefaction plant and then loaded into specialized insulated, temperature-controlled tankers for shipment by sea.
To receive LNG, an offloading port must have a regasification plant that converts the LNG back to a gaseous form so it can be sent by pipeline to end users. Both liquefaction plants and regasification plants cost billions of dollars and take multiple years to build.
Following a similar crisis in 2009, when a financial conflict with Ukraine prompted Russia to suspend gas shipments for 20 days, Europe substantially expanded its number of regasification facilities to 29. There is still currently space in European regasification receiving terminals to import more LNG, and plenty of storage space to hold imported supply virtually indefinitely. But many of the world’s top suppliers are maxed-out, with little capacity to produce and liquefy more natural gas than they are already moving.
The global LNG market has some flexibility. About two-thirds of all LNG is sold under firm, long-term contracts with fixed destinations. Some major contract holders like South Korea, Japan and China and their suppliers are willing to redirect cargoes to Europe if a further cutback in Russian exports creates a worsening supply crisis.
A look at the U.S.‘s emergence as a major natural gas exporter, focusing on the company Freeport LNG.
Have suppliers rerouted shipments this way before?
The main example occurred in 2011 when a tsunami triggered a meltdown and radiation release at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Japan shut down all of its nuclear plants to assess whether they were prepared for similar disasters. LNG suppliers diverted gas shipments to Japan to help it weather the immediate crisis.
Today, analysts say that producers or LNG importers may be able to redirect cargoes that could offset about 10%-15% of any shortfall. Still, such shifts would likely be at premium prices, leaving European consumers with an even steeper bill than they face now.
In the graphic explainer, fix “its” to “it” and capitalize the first word of the second sentence.“
Will increased U.S. LNG shipments to Europe drive up prices for U.S. consumers?
In other words, U.S. sellers have been able to supply more gas to Europe by diverting export cargoes, rather than by selling gas that would otherwise have been used domestically. In my view, if U.S. natural gas prices rise in the coming weeks, winter weather is likely to be a bigger driver than LNG exports.
Wouldn’t Russia harm its own economy by cutting off gas exports to Europe and losing those revenues?
In recent years, Russia has structured its federal budget in a manner that has allowed it to stash away US$630 billion in foreign exchange reserves – cash held by the central bank in other currencies for discretionary use, much like individual savings accounts. Russian leaders can use these funds to weather any new sanctions or unexpected changes in the price of oil.
For example, last year, the Kremlin based its spending on a conservatively low break-even oil price estimate of $45 per barrel, giving itself some latitude. Ultimately, 2021 oil prices averaged $71 a barrel, providing a sizable budgetary windfall.
Through this fiscal strategy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amassed a war chest to withstand any new round of sanctions, or even the complete loss of natural gas export revenues from Europe for a period of time.
The 87-story Lakhta Center, headquarters of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, in St. Petersburg, Russia.AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky
Still, any Russian move to cut off gas exports to Europe might have longer-term consequences. Putin may have hoped that his saber-rattling about natural gas, and the high prices it has triggered, would convince Europeans that Russian gas is vital and can’t be easily replaced with renewable energy. But ironically, this tactic may already have created a lasting distaste that fast-tracks Europe’s pivot to offshore wind, Euro-North African hydrogen hubs and U.S. LNG
Gazprom, the Russian firm with the largest gas export footprint in Europe, might also find itself adrift in a sea of lawsuits and high penalty charges for breaking its contractual commitments in the wake of a cutoff. That in turn could affect the Russian people, who also rely on Gazprom’s solvency for their winter fuel for heating.
[Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.Sign up today.]
Putin may be willing to bet that an energy pricing crisis in Europe will sow popular discontent, scotch the energy transition and help Russia win concessions on NATO’s positioning of troops and missiles. But there is little evidence that Europe will react that way. While Europe’s shift to renewables will take time, it will still be bad news in the long run for Russia, which has 1,688 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves left to be exploited for as much as 100 years of supply.
Amy Myers Jaffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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string(12522) "A Trump supporter climbs scaffolding in an effort to breach the U.S. Capitol.Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images
Nihilism was notably cited during U.S. Senate deliberations after rioting Trump supporters had been cleared from the Capitol.
“Don’t let nihilists become your drug dealers,” exhorted Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse. “There are some who want to burn it all down. … Don’t let them be your prophets.”
In 2016, I wrote about how Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky had, in his work, explored what happens to society when people who rise to power lack any semblance of ideological or moral convictions and view society as bereft of meaning. I saw eerie similarities with Trump’s actions and rhetoric on the campaign trail.
Fast-forward four years, and I believe the warnings of Dostoevsky – particularly in his most most political novel, “Demons,” published in 1872 – hold truer than ever.
Although set in a sleepy provincial Russian town, “Demons” serves as a broader allegory for how thirst for power in some people, combined with the indifference and disavowal of responsibility by others, amount to a devastating nihilism that consumes society, fostering chaos and costing lives.
But then a disturbing public trial spurred him in a more overtly political direction. A young student had been murdered by members of a revolutionary group, The Organization of the People’s Vengeance, at the behest of their leader, Sergei Nechaev.
Dostoevsky was appalled that politics could be dehumanizing to the point of murder. His focus turned not only to moral questions but also to political demagoguery, which, he argued, if left unchecked, could result in devastating loss of life.
The result was “Demons.” It featured two protagonists: Pyotr Verkhovensky, a former student with no political convictions beyond a lust for power, and Nikolai Stavrogin, a man so morally numb and emotionally detached that he is incapable of purposeful action and stands idly by as violence engulfs his society.
Through these two figures, Dostoevsky tells a broader story about the many flavors of nihilism. Pyotr infiltrates the town’s local social circles, recruits a group of disciples to a revolutionary group and spins lies to band them together so they may do his bidding. Pretending to lead a broad movement of international socialism, Pyotr manipulates those around him into committing violent acts and insurrection against the local government. As a result, one woman is crushed by a mob, a mother and her baby die from chaos and neglect and a fire breaks out that kills multiple others.
Different townspeople espouse multiple and contradictory ideologies; none translates into purposeful action. Instead, they merely leave characters whiplashed and susceptible to being instrumentalized by Pyotor, the master manipulator.
The allure of feeling something
But Pyotr would not prevail without the nihilism of Stavrogin, a local nobleman.
Many townspeople see him as a leader with a strong moral compass. Throughout the novel, Pyotr seeks to loop Stavrogin into his quest for power by either doing him favors that corrupt him or hinting that he will install him as dictator once he successfully carries out a revolution.
On some level, Stavrogin knows better: He should be protecting the town and its people. He ultimately fails to do so, out of sheer despondence and because of the emotional appeal of chaos and violence have for him; they seem to jolt him out of the ennui he often appears to feel.
When given the chance to restrain and turn in to the authorities the escaped convict who perpetrates most of the violence in town, Stavrogin captures him only to eventually let him go. “Steal more, kill more,” he says to a criminal who has already admitted to killing and stealing. Later, when the political climate gets so heated that it seems an insurrection is imminent, he flees town.
In surrendering his responsibility to serve as a moral guardian, Stavrogin becomes complicit in Pyotr’s schemes. He ultimately kills himself – perhaps, in part, out of guilt for his passivity and moral indifference.
Among the two men, Pyotr is the authoritarian figure. And he cleverly insists that members of the revolutionary group break the law together, cementing a loyal brotherhood of criminality.
By contrast, Stavrogin is the novel’s empty center, idly standing by while Pyotr incites violence.
He doesn’t help Pyotr. But he doesn’t stop him, either.
From nihilism to annihilation
A range of nihilistic justifications – each successively hollower than the rest – seems to have shaped the violence at the U.S. Capitol.
The homegrown American insurrection lacked any sort of ideological foundation. Most ideas fueling it are negations of persons or facts. The immediate rallying cry of the insurrection was the falsehood that the election was stolen. Beyond denying the will of over 80 million people who voted for Joe Biden, this lie also qualifies not as an ideology, but as an absolute denial of truth.
Other ideas fomenting the insurrection – such as “America first” or “MAGA” and even white supremacy itself – are quintessentially founded on the denial of others, whether they are immigrants, foreign nationals or persons of color.
The only real purpose that seems to have brought the group together was devotion to Donald Trump, who strikes me as the arch-nihilist in all this, the Pyotr Verkhovensky of this American tragedy. Then there are the other public figures who should have known better, who might have helped stop it all, but couldn’t and didn’t. Some, like Stavrogin, excused themselves and were silent for far too long, as the lie about the election grew bigger and bigger. And others seemed to outright encourage the lie through formalized objections in Congress last week.
Playacting at revolution at the behest of a man seeking to cling to power, the rioters ultimately only managed only to vandalize the building, though they left five people dead in their wake.
Nonetheless, to act violently on the basis of such fictions – and to transgress against the humanity of others for nothing at all – is perhaps the most nihilistic act of them all.
Ani Kokobobo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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string(17125) "Haitian President Jean-Pierre Boyer receiving Charles X's decree recognizing Haitian independence on July 11, 1825.Bibliotheque Nationale de France
Much of the reparations debate has revolved around whether the United States and the United Kingdom should finally compensate some of their citizens for the economic and social costs of slavery that still linger today.
But to me, there’s never been a more clear-cut case for reparations than that of Haiti.
I’m a specialist on colonialism and slavery, and what France did to the Haitian people after the Haitian Revolution is a particularly notorious examples of colonial theft. France instituted slavery on the island in the 17th century, but, in the late 18th century, the enslaved population rebelled and eventually declared independence. Yet, somehow, in the 19th century, the thinking went that the former enslavers of the Haitian people needed to be compensated, rather than the other way around.
Just as the legacy of slavery in the United States has created a gross economic disparity between Black and white Americans, the tax on its freedom that France forced Haiti to pay – referred to as an “indemnity” at the time – severely damaged the newly independent country’s ability to prosper.
The cost of independence
Haiti officially declared its independence from France in 1804. In October 1806, the country was split into two, with Alexandre Pétion ruling in the south and Henry Christophe ruling in the north.
Despite the fact that both of Haiti’s rulers were veterans of the Haitian Revolution, the French had never quite given up on reconquering their former colony.
In 1814 King Louis XVIII, who had helped overthrow Napoléon earlier that year, sent three commissioners to Haiti to assess the willingness of the country’s rulers to surrender. Christophe, having made himself a king in 1811, remained obstinate in the face of France’s exposed plan to bring back slavery. Threatening war, the most prominent member of Christophe’s cabinet, Baron de Vastey, insisted,“ Our independence will be guaranteed by the tips of our bayonets!”
A portrait of Alexandre Pétion.Alfred Nemours Archive of Haitian History, University of Puerto Rico
In contrast, Pétion, the ruler of the south, was willing to negotiate, hoping that the country might be able to pay France for recognition of its independence.
In 1803, Napoléon had sold Louisiana to the United States for 15 million francs. Using this number as his compass, Pétion proposed paying the same amount. Unwilling to compromise with those he viewed as “runaway slaves,” Louis XVIII rejected the offer.
Pétion died suddenly in 1818, but Jean-Pierre Boyer, his successor, kept up the negotiations. Talks, however, continued to stall due to Christophe’s stubborn opposition.
“Any indemnification of the ex-colonists,” Christophe’s government stated, was “inadmissible.”
Once Christophe died in October 1820, Boyer was able to reunify the two sides of the country. However, even with the obstacle of Christophe gone, Boyer repeatedly failed to successfully negotiate France’s recognition of independence. Determined to gain at least suzerainty over the island – which would have made Haiti a protectorate of France – Louis XVIII’s successor, Charles X, rebuked the two commissioners Boyer sent to Paris in 1824 to try to negotiate an indemnity in exchange for recognition.
On April 17, 1825, the French king suddenly changed his mind. He issued a decree stating France would recognize Haitian independence but only at the price of 150 million francs – or 10 times the amount the U.S. had paid for the Louisiana territory. The sum was meant to compensate the French colonists for their lost revenues from slavery.
Baron de Mackau, whom Charles X sent to deliver the ordinance, arrived in Haiti in July, accompanied by a squadron of 14 brigs of war carrying more than 500 cannons.
Rejection of the ordinance almost certainly meant war. This was not diplomacy. It was extortion.
With the threat of violence looming, on July 11, 1825, Boyer signed the fatal document, which stated, “The present inhabitants of the French part of St. Domingue shall pay … in five equal installments … the sum of 150,000,000 francs, destined to indemnify the former colonists.”
French prosperity built on Haitian poverty
Newspaper articles from the period reveal that the French king knew the Haitian government was hardly capable of making these payments, as the total was more than 10 times Haiti’s annual budget. The rest of the world seemed to agree that the amount was absurd. One British journalist noted that the “enormous price” constituted a “sum which few states in Europe could bear to sacrifice.”
Forced to borrow 30 million francs from French banks to make the first two payments, it was hardly a surprise to anyone when Haiti defaulted soon thereafter. Still, the new French king sent another expedition in 1838 with 12 warships to force the Haitian president’s hand. The 1838 revision, inaccurately labeled “Traité d’Amitié” – or “Treaty of Friendship” – reduced the outstanding amount owed to 60 million francs, but the Haitian government was once again ordered to take out crushing loans to pay the balance.
Although the colonists claimed that the indemnity would only cover one-twelfth the value of their lost properties, including the people they claimed as their slaves, the total amount of 90 million francs was actually five times France’s annual budget.
The Haitian people suffered the brunt of the consequences of France’s theft. Boyer levied draconian taxes in order to pay back the loans. And while Christophe had been busy developing a national school system during his reign, under Boyer, and all subsequent presidents, such projects had to be put on hold. Moreover, researchers have found that the independence debt and the resulting drain on the Haitian treasury were directly responsible not only for the underfunding of education in 20th-century Haiti, but also lack of health care and the country’s inability to develop public infrastructure.
Contemporary assessments, furthermore, reveal that with the interest from all the loans, which were not completely paid off until 1947, Haitians ended up paying more than twice the value of the colonists’ claims. Recognizing the gravity of this scandal, French economist Thomas Piketty acknowledged that France should repay at least US billion to Haiti in restitution.
A debt that’s both moral and material
Former French presidents, from Jacques Chirac, to Nicolas Sarkozy, to François Hollande, have a history of punishing, skirting or downplaying Haitian demands for recompense.
In May 2015, when French President François Hollande became only France’s second head of state to visit Haiti, he admitted that his country needed to “settle the debt.” Later, realizing he had unwittingly provided fuel for the legal claims already prepared by attorney Ira Kurzban on behalf of the Haitian people – former Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide had demanded formal recompense in 2002 – Hollande clarified that he meant France’s debt was merely “moral.”
To deny that the consequences of slavery were also material is to deny French history itself. France belatedly abolished slavery in 1848 in its remaining colonies of Martinique, Guadeloupe, Réunion and French Guyana, which are still territories of France today. Afterwards, the French government demonstrated once again its understanding of slavery’s relationship to economics when it took it upon itself to financially compensate the former “owners” of enslaved people.
The resulting racial wealth gap is no metaphor. In metropolitan France 14.1% of the population lives below the poverty line. In Martinique and Guadeloupe, in contrast, where more than 80% of the population is of African descent, the poverty rates are 38% and 46%, respectively. The poverty rate in Haiti is even more dire at 59%. And whereas the median annual income of a French family is ,112, it’s only 0 for a Haitian family.
These discrepancies are the concrete consequence of stolen labor from generations of Africans and their descendants. And because the indemnity Haiti paid to France is the first and only time a formerly enslaved people were forced to compensate those who had once enslaved them, Haiti should be at the center of the global movement for reparations.
This is an updated version of an article originally published on June 30, 2020.
Marlene Daut does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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string(10581) "Grindr allows for anonymity in a way that other dating apps do not.Martin Bureau/AFP via Getty Images
On gay dating apps like Grindr, many users have profiles that contain phrases like “I don’t date Black men,” or that claim they are “not attracted to Latinos.” Other times they’ll list races acceptable to them: “White/Asian/Latino only.”
This language is so pervasive on the app that websites such as Douchebags of Grindr and hashtags like #grindrwhileblack can be used to find countless examples of the abusive language that men use against people of color.
While social scientists have explored racism on online dating apps, most of this work has centered on highlighting the problem, a topic I’ve also written about.
I’m seeking to move beyond simply describing the problem and to better understand why some gay men behave this way. From 2015 to 2019 I interviewed gay men from the Midwest and West Coast regions of the United States. Part of that fieldwork was focused on understanding the role Grindr plays in LGBTQ life.
The gay men I connected with tended to make one of two justifications.
The most common was to simply describe their behaviors as “preferences.” One participant I interviewed, when asked about why he stated his racial preferences, said, “I don’t know. I just don’t like Latinos or Black guys.”
A Grindr profile used in the study specifies interest in certain races.Christopher T. Conner, CC BY
That user went on to explain that he had even purchased a paid version of the app that allowed him to filter out Latinos and Black men. His image of his ideal partner was so fixed that he would rather – as he put it – “be celibate” than be with a Black or Latino man. (During the 2020 #BLM protests in response to the murder of George Floyd, Grindr eliminated the ethnicity filter.)
Sociologists have long been interested in the concept of preferences, whether they’re favorite foods or people we’re attracted to. Preferences may appear natural or inherent, but they’re actually shaped by larger structural forces – the media we consume, the people we know and the experiences we have. In my study, many of the respondents seemed to have never really thought twice about the source of their preferences. When confronted, they simply became defensive.
“It was not my intent to cause distress,” another user explained. “My preference may offend others … [however,] I derive no satisfaction from being mean to others, unlike those who have problems with my preference.”
The other way that I observed some gay men justifying their discrimination was by framing it in a way that put the emphasis back on the app. These users would say things like, “This isn’t e-harmony, this is Grindr, get over it or block me.”
Since Grindr has a reputation as a hookup app, bluntness should be expected, according to users like this one – even when it veers into racism. Responses like these reinforce the idea of Grindr as a space where social niceties don’t matter and carnal desire reigns.
Prejudices bubble to the surface
While social media apps have dramatically altered the landscape of gay culture, the benefits from these technological tools can sometimes be difficult to see. Some scholars point to how these apps enable those living in rural areas to connect with one another, or how it gives those living in cities alternatives to LGBTQ spaces that are increasingly gentrified.
Perhaps Grindr has become particularly fertile ground for cruelty because it allows anonymity in a way that other dating apps do not. Scruff, another gay dating app, requires users to reveal more of who they are. However, on Grindr people are allowed to be anonymous and faceless, reduced to images of their torsos or, in some cases, no images at all.
At the very least, the benefits from these apps aren’t experienced universally. Grindr seems to recognize as much; in 2018, the app launched its “#KindrGrindr” campaign. But it’s difficult to know if the apps are the cause of such toxic environments, or if they’re a symptom of something that has always existed.
Christopher T. Conner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Snow shoveling is a unique form of exertion. It can be vigorous and challenging to the cardiovascular system in general, and the heart in particular. When combined with the inherent environmental conditions of winter, snow shoveling during or after a blizzard may be the “perfect storm” for a cardiac event in those with known or “occult” (hidden) coronary disease.
First, a little background. The “risk-paradox” of exercise is that while physical activity performed over the long term is known to be very healthy and significantly lowers the risk for heart disease and other chronic diseases, vigorous exercise acutely increases the immediate risk of a cardiac event above that expected at rest. The risk of having a cardiac event while you are in a rested state is low, but you are more likely to have a cardiac event while performing vigorous exercise.
Despite this, it is widely accepted that the benefits far outweigh the risks and should be encouraged. In fact, the more physically active you are, the less the acute risk is. Being in good shape can give you added cardio-protection.
The reason snow shoveling leads to increased risk of a cardiac event is rather simple: at rest the oxygen supply to the heart is not challenged very much, but during exercise the heart’s oxygen demands increase dramatically. Snow shoveling is particularly demanding in this regard.
When you are healthy, your body has the ability to increase oxygen supply as the demand increases. As the heart beats faster and harder, the coronary vessels open up and supply the additional blood flow that is required to feed the heart’s increased demand.
However, when coronary disease is present, blockages in the coronary vessels can limit blood flow, leading to slowed and inadequate oxygen supply. When the heart muscle (the myocardium) does not get sufficient oxygen, it can rapidly fail because it is highly dependent on blood flow (oxygen) to generate normal contractions. If the heart muscle becomes starved for oxygen, it also becomes vulnerable to abnormal electrical activity that can lead to dangerous arrhythmia’s (irregular heartbeats) or a heart attack.
Other less common types of underlying cardiac disease, often undetected, may also make the heart vulnerable to arrhythmia’s during heavy exertion when oxygen supply is outstripped by demand and can lead to similar, catastrophic consequences.
Very few studies have examined the physiology of snow shoveling because it is technically difficult to do so. We do know that the cardiovascular demands of snow shoveling are very high. In fact it rivals the demands during maximal exercise testing, such as a cardiac stress test on a treadmill or bicycle, which often exceed 80-90% of your maximal exercise tolerance.
There are two aspects of snow shoveling that make it unusual for the heart compared to, for example, walking or jogging.
First and obviously, it is typically performed in cold weather. Cold air inhalation may cause a reflex constriction of blood vessels, including the coronary arteries. Cold air may also increase the blood’s propensity for clotting. If blood clots form and there is a tear in the inside of the artery, a blood clot could form a blockage.
The second issue is the nature of the exercise – and snow shoveling is unique. It is typically done without a warm up, and includes considerable arm work that increases blood pressure drastically. As blood pressure rises, so too does the work of the heart. Meanwhile, your leg muscles are typically performing isometric work (where you produce a lot of tension but your muscles don’t move your joint – like an even tie during an arm-wrestle). This type of muscle activity, especially in the upper body (as you tightly grip the shovel), raises blood pressure more than, say, walking or jogging.
Each time you thrust the snow, the arms rise high, increasing blood pressure further. In addition, you typically perform the Valsalva maneuver: a natural tendency to generate lots of chest pressure without exhaling breathing out (like tennis players do when they hit a ball, or when you push hard against something). This further increases blood pressure.
Ironically, the metabolic cost of snow shoveling (oxygen consumption for the whole body) may not be more than typical sub-maximal exercise like a light jog, but the oxygen cost to the heart is likely to be very high. Failing to warm up may add further demands on the heart. The blood vessels going to the working skeletal muscles may not open up as quickly, so it takes more effort for the heart to pump blood.
The bottom line: the cardiac cost of snow shoveling is disproportionately high, is compounded by cold air inhalation which may increase the likelihood of blood clotting and coronary vessel constriction. The nature of the exercise is challenging to the heart and is not likely to be accompanied by an adequate warm up. I also suspect that the cool down after this exercise is likely minimal if not non-existent. Throwing off the coat and sitting in a state of exhaustion certainly doesn’t count as a proper cool down.
Snow will keep coming, so what can you do?
For most people, snow shoveling is a safe form of exercise, even if it is a little difficult. But you should get a green light from your doctor if you have been diagnosed with, or are considered to be at risk for, coronary heart disease. If you are not accustomed to vigorous exercise, some caution is warranted.
Snow shoveling can be vigorous exercise, so start the right way. Warm up gradually – at least 5-10 minutes. Consider wearing a scarf around the mouth in very cold conditions, as this will warm inhaled air. Start with small loads of snow and keep them manageable - especially when its wet and heavy. Use a smaller shovel so that your lifts are much, much smaller and can be managed for a long time without getting exhausted. Breathe throughout the entire process of gathering, lifting and throwing the snow – don’t hold your breath as you exert effort. As you warm up, some greater effort can be considered, but easy does it. When you’ve won the battle, cool down – walk it off for a few minutes, perhaps inspecting the shoveling efforts of a few neighbors before going inside to a warm house.
Remember that being physically fit lowers your risk from cardiac disease, and regular exercise is highly recommended for most individuals. That being said, be cautious and get sound advice from your physician if in doubt. For most people, regular exercise (including both aerobic and strength) will enhance your quality of life - and make your future shoveling much easier - and safer too!
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts.
Baby boomers – that’s anyone born in the U.S. between 1946 and 1964 – are 20% of the population, more than 70 million Americans. Decades ago, many in that generation experimented with drugs that were both recreational and illegal. Although boomers may not be using those same drugs today, many are taking medications, often several of them. And even if those drugs are legal, there are still risks of interactions and side effects.
The taking of multiple medications is called polypharmacy, typically four or more at the same time. That includes prescriptions from doctors, over-the-counter medicines, supplements and herbs. Sometimes, polypharmacy can be dangerous.
Make sure your doctor is regularly reviewing your medication list.Getty Images / dszc
Reactions to medications can change over time
We geriatricians know that polypharmacy isn’t always bad; multiple medications may be necessary. If you’ve had a heart attack, you might be on four medications or more – beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors, statins and aspirin, for instance. And that’s appropriate.
But about half of older adults take at least one medication that’s not necessary or no longer needed. Doctors need to periodically reevaluate to make sure each medication is still right for the patient and still the correct dose. During treatment, the patient’s weight may fluctuate, either up or down. Even if it stays the same, body composition might change; that occurs as people age. As a result, one may react differently to a drug. That can happen even with a medication a person has been on for years.
Polypharmacy often means higher health care costs and more drug interactions. Patients are more likely to miss medications or stop taking them altogether. Sometimes, physical activity diminshes; falls, cognitive impairment, malnourishment and urinary incontinence increase; there may be less ability to do daily tasks. Those on five or more medications have a much higher incidence of having an ADE – an adverse drug event – compared to those using fewer meds. Making matters worse, the symptoms of polypharmacy are sometimes masked and taken as signs of aging.
Check the list
Studies have suggested solutions, with better coordination among care providers being one. Making the pharmacist an integral part of routine care is another. The increasing use of electronic patient records helps. So do smartphone apps, sometimes an easier way for patients and providers to connect. But so far, there’s no magic pill, and as researchers and clinicians investigate improvements, much of the burden remains on patients and their families.
There are steps you can take to stay safe, however. Regularly clean out the medicine cabinet and get rid of expired medicines or those you’re no longer taking. Either throw them away or ask your doctor or pharmacist about the best way to dispose of them. When seeing the doctor, bring in the meds you take and review each one in detail. Make certain you need to continue taking them all and verify the right dose.
Make sure you regularly check the expiration dates on your medications.Getty Images / dszc
You can also check the PIMs list, also known as the Beer’s List. Published by the American Geriatric Society, it’s an index of medications potentially harmful to the elderly. Some are linked to increased risks of side effects, and not a few are sold over-the-counter without prescription.
That includes medicines containing antihistamines like diphenhydramine, or Benadryl. In the elderly population, Benadryl carries an increased risk of dizziness, confusion and urinary retention. Medicines that are part of the NSAID family (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) are also on the list. In some elderly patients, they can cause high blood pressure or kidney failure. Commonly used medicines in the NSAID family are those containing ibuprofen or naproxen.
Just because a medicine is on the Beer’s List doesn’t mean your doctor was wrong to prescribe it, or that you should stop using it. Instead, use the medication with caution and discuss with your doctor to make sure you need it. Determine with your doctor the lowest useful dose, monitor for side effects, and speak up if you have any.
As a geriatrician, I see patients in an outpatient setting, either as their primary care provider or as a specialist consultant. We review medications at every visit: the list, the dose and how often the patient is taking it. A true and accurate medication list is the critical first step in geriatric care.
This is especially important during care transitions, such as when a patient is coming out of the hospital or nursing home. Particularly at that time, we find out if the patient is using the medication as prescribed, or taking it more frequently or less or not at all. Which leads to my final piece of advice: If you’ve strayed with your meds, one way or another, know that we doctors don’t judge or punish patients. Just tell us the truth. That’s all we want to hear. Then we can move forward together to find the best regimen for you.
Laurie Archbald-Pannone is affiliated with American Geriatrics Society.
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string(16702) "Coastal cities like Port Arthur, Texas, are at increasing risk from flooding during storms.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Climate change is raising flood risks in neighborhoods across the U.S. much faster than many people realize. Over the next three decades, the cost of flood damage is on pace to rise 26% due to climate change alone, an analysis of our new flood risk maps shows.
That’s only part of the risk. Despite recent devastating floods, people are still building in high-risk areas. With population growth factored in, we found the increase in U.S. flood losses will be four times higher than the climate-only effect.
In the new analysis, published Jan. 31, 2022, we estimated where flood risk is rising fastest and who is in harm’s way. The results show the high costs of flooding and lay bare the inequities of who has to endure America’s crippling flood problem. They also show the importance of altering development patterns now.
As the atmosphere warms, it holds about 7% more moisture for every degree Celsius that the temperature rises, meaning more moisture is available to fall as rain, potentially raising the risk of inland flooding. A warmer climate also leads to rising sea levels and higher storm surges as land ice melts and warming ocean water expands.
Yet, translating that understanding into the detailed impact of future flooding has been beyond the grasp of existing flood mapping approaches.
A map of Houston shows flood risk changing over the next 30 years. Blue areas are today’s 100-year flood-risk zones. The red areas reflect the same zones in 2050.Wing et al., 2022
Previous efforts to link climate change to flood models offered only a broad view of the threat and didn’t zoom in close enough to provide reliable measures of local risk, although they could illustrate the general direction of change. Most local flood maps, such as those produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, have a different problem: They’re based on historical changes rather than incorporating the risks ahead, and the government isslow to update them.
Our maps account for flooding from rivers, rainfall and the oceans – both now and into the future – across the entire contiguous United States. They are produced at scales that show street-by-street impacts, and unlike FEMA maps, they cover floods of many different sizes, from nuisance flooding that may occur every few years to once-in-a-millennium disasters.
While hazard maps only show where floods might occur, our new risk analysis combines that with data on the U.S. building stock to understand the damage that occurs when floodwaters collide with homes and businesses. It’s the first validated analysis of climate-driven flood risk for the U.S.
The inequity of America’s flood problem
We estimated that the annual cost of flooding today is over $32 billion nationwide, with an outsized burden on communities in Appalachia, the Gulf Coast and the Northwest.
When we looked at demographics, we found that today’s flood risk is predominantly concentrated in white, impoverished communities. Many of these are in low-lying areas directly on the coasts or Appalachian valleys at risk from heavy rainfall.
But the increase in risk as rising oceans reach farther inland during storms and high tides over the next 30 years falls disproportionately on communities with large African American populations on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Urban and rural areas from Texas to Florida to Virginia contain predominantly Black communities projected to see at least a 20% increase in flood risk over the next 30 years.
Historically, poorer communities haven’t seen as much investment in flood adaptation or infrastructure, leaving them more exposed. The new data, reflecting the cost of damage, contradicts a common misconception that flood risk exacerbated by sea level rise is concentrated in whiter, wealthier areas.
Hurricane Florence’s storm surge and extreme rainfall flooded towns on North Carolina’s Neuse River many miles inland from the ocean in 2018.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Our findings raise policy questions about disaster recovery. Prior research has found that these groups recover less quickly than more privileged residents and that disasters can further exacerbate existing inequities. Current federal disaster aid disproportionately helps wealthier residents. Without financial safety nets, disasters can be tipping points into financial stress or deeper poverty.
Population growth is a major driver of flood risk
Another important contributor to flood risk is the growing population.
As urban areas expand, people are building in riskier locations, including expanding into existing floodplains – areas that were already at risk of flooding, even in a stable climate. That’s making adapting to the rising climate risks even more difficult.
A Kansas City flood map shows developments in the 100-year flood zone.Fathom
We integrated into our model predictions how and where the increasing numbers of people will live in order to assess their future flood risk. The result: Future development patterns have a four times greater impact on 2050 flood risk than climate change alone.
On borrowed time
If these results seem alarming, consider that these are conservative estimates. We used a middle-of-the-road trajectory for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, one in which global carbon emissions peak in the 2040s and then fall.
Importantly, much of this impact over the next three decades is already lockedinto the climate system. While cutting emissions now is crucial to slow the rate of sea level rise and reduce future flood risk, adaptation is required to protect against the losses we project to 2050.
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If future development was directed outside of the riskiest areas, and new construction met higher standards for flood mitigation, some of these projected losses could be avoided. In previous research, we found that for a third of currently undeveloped U.S. floodplains it is cheaper to buy the land at today’s prices and preserve it for recreation and wildlife than develop it and pay for the inevitable flood damages later.
The results stress how critical land use and building codes are when it comes to adapting to climate change and managing future losses from increasing climate extremes. Protecting lives and property will mean moving existing populations out of harm’s way and stopping new construction in flood-risk areas.
Oliver Wing is a Research Fellow at the University of Bristol and also the Chief Research Officer of Fathom, a flood risk analytics firm.
Carolyn Kousky is the Executive Director of the Wharton Risk Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
Jeremy Porter is Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences at CUNY and also the Chief Research Officer at the research and technology non-profit First Street Foundation.
Paul Bates is Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol and also a founding shareholder of Fathom.
